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XE Rate Alerts Choose a currency pair Set your desired mid-market rate Receive free alerts by email LEARN MORE. XE Market Analysis North America Europe Asia North American Edition The pound has traded softer on Brexit anxiety, but not dramatically so and the currency has remained above lows seen yesterday against the dollar, euro and other currencies.
Read More UTC. When the US money supply doubled from to it led to an average inflation rate of 9. The bottom line is: Inflation and higher rates are here to come which will benefit gold prices since gold remains the ultimate hedge against inflation.
Well, let me ask you this: the commodity market bottomed out in and is in a bull trend ever since then, just like gold.
Commodity prices were coming down for more than 30 years and now most analysts are freaking out of so called extreme high valuations after a tiny little 5 year bull move.
Now please forget about the argument that a reduced economic growth in China would hurt the commodity sector since a reduced demand for commodities could only be achieved by a negative economic growth.
Same applies of course for India et all. Highlights: Inflation took off after the US money supply had doubled from to leading to an averaged inflation rate of 9.
Signs of accelerated inflation in sky-rocketing food and energy prices are clearly visible. Higher energy prices are not the result of an oil crisis but of a demand driven bull market in oil.
The end of cheap energy has arrived. An Inflation tsunami could be the result which could send gold prices to levels unimaginable today. In other words, downside risk is low.
Higher gold prices the years ahead will lift the entire gold share sector but the most exciting rewards will come from junior mining companies making new discoveries.
Here at the Gold Discovery Letter we track promising junior companies which we believe could be huge winners before this decade is out.
PwC remains confident that fundamentals will lead to the continuation of high commodity prices. Takeover activity in picked up from its already rapid pace in , and consolidation and expansion through the acquisition of new assets remain a cornerstone of the cash-rich companies.
In fact, this period of consolidation funded by commodity prices has led to nine of the top 40 mining companies being acquired by one of the top 40 companies.
Leading the way with consolidation and expansion through acquisition was Companhia Vale do Rio Doce CVRD , which has grown from a regional iron-ore producer to become a top-four diversified mining giant.
An area of concern that is noted in the report is that of rapidly increas- ing production costs, leaving little flexibility. Spending on costs such as labour, steel, electricity, and diesel are vital and relatively fixed, making it almost impossible to lower production costs.
It is also known that the deeper a mine goes, the more costs increase. PwC mining division director Hein Boegman asserts that mining companies are all too aware of this situation and are working hard and conducting research into lowering operating costs.
The costs of mine development are also rising and the development itself can take a considerable amount of time. On an encouraging note, PwC is confident that was not as good as it will get for the mining industry.
Gold's benchmark August contract gained 1. Gold futures gained 50 cents an ounce on Friday but finished last month with a loss of 2. At least seven suspects are now in custody after attempted attacks on a central London nightclub and Scotland's Glasgow Airport this past weekend, British media outlets reported on Monday.
Two more men were arrested on Monday by Scottish police, bringing the total to six men and one woman who have been detained. Two of those rammed a jeep, which burst into flames, into the main terminal of Glasgow Airport, according to media reports.
Three others were arrested around the northern English city of Liverpool. Britain's terror-alert level was raised to its highest over the weekend and is now at "critical.
See Futures Movers. See story in WSJ. Dollar decline Currencies trading also helped support gold's gains Monday, with the greenback trading 0.
The dollar also was weaker against the euro, and the British pound rose to a year high. The euro-zone manufacturing poll in June was at a four-month high, while a U.
See Currencies. See full story. In a research note Monday, James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk. That was its strongest closing level since May Gold warehouse inventories fell by 74, troy ounces to stand at 7.
Silver supplies dropped to Indexes tracking the metals-mining sector moved higher to reflect strength in the metals as well as the broader U.
Physik als Gegengift zu implodierenden Kreditgebirgen, deren realer Wert offenbar schwer bestimmbar ist. Ist ja eigentlich schon bekannt, aber tut man es auch in hinreichendem Masse?
National currencies have counterparty risk. Gold and silver do not. In other words, every national currency is dependent upon a promise, for example, the promise that the bank where you have your money deposited or the government or company whose debt instrument you purchased will repay your money to you.
Gold and silver do not have counterparty risk because the realizable value of tangible assets is not dependent upon someone's promise.
This observation of course assumes that you own physical gold and silver. With paper 'gold' and paper 'silver' you have counterparty risk.
Counterparty risk is often overlooked, but it should not be. Gold and silver are the bedrock assets in your portfolio, and you therefore do not want to take risks with them.
You can avoid risk when you own physical metal, either in-hand or by holding title to it and having your metal safely stored for you, like the service we provide in GoldMoney.
Paper substitutes for metal e. Placing wealth in tangible assets is an ideal way to avoid a financial contagion, like the one now brewing. When you own physical gold and silver, you have the peace of mind knowing that your wealth rests within a tangible asset, and not upon a promise.
Physical gold and silver are the ideal antidote to avoid the subprime contagion. Buy Silver Now and How to Buy July 2, Timothy Silvers This article is not as timely as I would like as I have been traveling in the remote Indian Himalaya and have very little access to internet.
There was another intermediate high in mid to late April but I was in the middle of nowhere in Turkey then and could not publish a timely article to advise taking profits.
This will be a highly summarized article and if you read my previous work you can follow the logic I use. I also will answer at the end a common question "How do I buy silver?
I am now fully invested. Keep that in mind as you follow my analysis and make your own decisions. Silver fell discouragingly through its and dma but appears to have bottomed.
It has broken through the lower end of the upward channel I drew on the Feb 27 graph in my last article. If I were using leverage, I would exit long positions at a loss if we close below that.
I cannot give you an estimate of an absolute bottom. I can only analyze week by week as the market moves. Gold is holding support at its and dma and should help keep a floor on further drops in the silver price.
Gold and silver both have RSI in the 30 to low 40 range right now although they are closing higher today as I write this.
Based on RSI history this is a relatively low risk time to buy. The third graph I posted below I have been maintaining using COT data for almost 4 years.
However, we are near a relatively low point good for buying with commercials net short 47, contracts and non-commercials net long 27, contracts.
It is possible to see again a great buying opportunity in silver and gold sometime between the end of Aug and the end of October.
This is typically a weak time for the metals and if you are waiting or hoping for further weakness to buy, you should complete your puchases during that time frame.
However, the lowest point may have already past last week, so you might miss out if you wait for lower prices. I will try to post further analysis as my travel schedule and internet access permits.
Again I regret that I cannot respond to emails personally due to limited internet access but I still enjoy getting feedback and comments from readers.
How to Buy Silver SLV or silver stocks are a way to gain exposure to the price of silver as it goes up if your only investment funds are locked away in stock accounts.
It is possible to buy bullion to fund and IRA too which would be worth considering, especially a Roth IRA.
The details of that are beyond the scope of this article. Jim Sinclair warnt vor schmutzigen Tricks und Medienmanipulationen in Bezug auf Gold.
Dollar Weakness Trumps Market Manipulation Jim Sinclair They can manipulate as much as they want but it is all in the US dollar!
It is my opinion that those powerful short interests -- both legal and illegal -are frantic to cover and are therefore pulling out all the stops.
Dirty tricks, use of media pals, and all the usual underhanded methods seem to populate everything these days from gold to gold shares of good value.
Using the baseball analogy, "Three strikes and you're out," I rate today as strike number two at the.
The interesting part of this is that commentators are looking at the differential rate between the US Fed and other Central Banks.
My comment is, "Like hell that is the reason. When you see a new man come on board at Bear Stearns who specialized in asset maximization of corporations you know the horse dung has hit the proverbial fan.
I believe that Over the Counter Derivatives are now melting down, threatening many other well known international investment firms.
And that is why the dollar looks like death warmed over. In addition, that is why the price of gold is under the great power of manipulation to hold it down so as not to reveal the degree of the problem.
Remember this about Over the Counter Derivatives: They have no regulation. They have no standards.
Without standards there can be no viable market. They are unlisted They are traded by private treaty negotiation They are valued by "Mark to Model" which is a total cartoon.
They have no financial guarantee such as a clearing house. They are unfunded special performance contracts floating in cyberspace. All funds in the OTC Derivatives are taken out as spreads and commissions.
The financial performance of the specific performance contract called OTC Derivatives depends on the financial capacity of the loser in the transaction.
Control has been loose in the interest sensitive OTC Derivatives because of multiple dealings outside of the initiating two until no one knows who has what.
The replacement value of these instruments is in the multi trillions of dollars. Interest rate differential would not hammer the dollar as we are seeing today.
Remember that three strikes and the US dollar is out. Expect every dirty trick and media negativity towards everything gold as quiet but frantic insiders attempt to offset a panic by subverting early warning systems.
Those in the know are frantic to cover their short positions which can only be accomplished if they stampede you by every means possible.
They are going to fail. You are not. If you wish to screw the shorts royally - simply do nothing. They can make price but they cannot make cover as long as you are not spooked into selling everything gold.
The gloves are off and the major battle between longs and shorts in gold is here! Der Goldpreis und CDO-strukturierte Produkte Veröffentlich am Das ist das Problem!
Jahre über Jahre monetärer Inflation haben uns völlig unempfindlich gegenüber diesem Risiko werden lassen. Sei es auf staalichen, betriebswirtschaftlichen oder sogar individuellem Niveau - die Möglichkeit, billig Schulden machen zu können, hat uns dahingehend konditioniert, dass wir ohne Ende leihen.
Nirgendwo hat sich die Schuldenorgie bisher deutlicher gezeigt, als im Immobilienmarkt. Niedrige Hypothekenzinssätze sind ein Segen für Käufer von Häusern gewesen, zudem haben sie eine nicht zu sättigende Nachfrage nach strukturierten Produkten seitens renditenhungriger Investoren angekurbelt.
Die Gebühren sind RIESIG gewesen. Stellt man individuelle Kredite in Form eines Produktpaketes CDO genannt, wobei die Bezeichnung häufig variiert zusammen, besteht die Möglichkeit zu sortieren und genau auszuwählen, auf welche Ausschüttung man kommen will.
Natürlich gibt es auch Bandbreiten, die zum Beispiel einen zweitklassigen BBB Investment Grade Bond definieren. Der Paketszusammensteller braucht aber nicht mehr zu tun, als den lockersten Bond zur Leitlinie zu machen, um den Auflagen nachzukommen.
Die Regelbefolgung wird von Rating-Agenturen überwacht, die den Banken helfen ihre Produkte zusammenzustellen. Das ist ein nettes, lukratives Arrangement und es ist auch kompliziert.
Einer der bestbezahlten Jobs an der Wall Street ist der Korrelationshändler. Berechnungsexperten - Quants - die sicherstellen, dass sich die betreffenden Papiere nach ihren Vorhersagen verhalten.
Und dann gibt es da noch die Hebel. Uns was es für Hebel gibt! Die Ausschüttungen können bis zum fachen durch Derivate gesteigert werden Alles lief gut, bis zu dem Zeitpunkt, als die Zinssätze anfingen zu steigen und der Immobilienmarkt anfing zu fallen.
Vielleicht ist das Risiko der Zahlungsunfähigkeit doch viel höher als gedacht - Schluck! Bear Sterns kündigte an, zwei seiner problematischen Hedgefonds mit einem 3,2 Mrd.
Beide Hedgefonds waren an den oben genannten Geschäften beteiligt. Betrachtet man die am Freitag drastisch gesunkenen Bankenindices, lässt sich vermuten, dass dieses Problem weit verbreitet ist.
Demzufolge sind die langfristigen Fundamentalwerte für Gold unglaublich gut, kurzfristig aber wird es zu schmerzhaften Einschnitten kommen.
Der Grund dafür ist, dass Gold - zusammen mit allen anderen Kapitalanlagen - aufgrund der derzeitigen Liquiditätswelle in die Höhe getrieben wurde.
Eine preisliche Neufestlegung des CDO-Risikos würde wahrscheinlich den Einsatz und den Umfang dieser Instrumente beschneiden. Darüber hinaus würde es zu einer heftigen Liquiditätsverringerung kommen, mit einem dementsprechenden Rückgang bei allen Klassen der Kapitalanlagen.
Wenn die Ereignisse der letzten Woche als Indikator genommen werden, dann würde die Geschwindigkeit der Deflation atemberaubend und völlig überwältigend sein.
Die Bonität von Gold ist jedoch gegeben und wird auch immer gegeben sein. Wenn die Investoren erst die unglaublichen, uns bevorstehenden Gefahren mitbekommen, werden sie sich dem Gold wieder in Scharen zuwenden.
Mehr Kommentare und Aktienanalysen gibt es für Abonenten Verwirrung über komplexe Finanzprodukte Turbulenzen im CDO-Geschäft offenbaren Bewertungsschwächen Am Markt für Collateralized Debt Obligations CDO hat es jüngst ein kleines Beben gegeben.
Trotzdem haben sich die Kurse der verbrieften Schuldverschreibungen kaum bewegt, denn sie werden nur sehr wenig gehandelt.
Grund für die Zurückhaltung ist, dass niemand so recht weiss, auf welchem Niveau diese Produkte überhaupt bewertet werden sollen. New York, Ende Juni Vorsicht ist im Geschäft mit Risiken unerlässlich.
Doch wann genau soll man vorsichtig sein, und wann ist die Zeit reif für mehr Risiko in den Büchern?
Das Problem mit der Wahrnehmung von Risiko ist ein allgegenwärtiges Dilemma für die Wall-Street-Profis und sorgt nicht selten für Verwirrung.
Am Markt für Collateralized Debt Obligations CDO sind die Teilnehmer zum Beispiel lange davon ausgegangen, dass sie nur wenig Risiko eingehen. Zum einen ist bis vor wenigen Monaten kaum viel passiert, und zum anderen wissen die Anleger oft gar nicht, was für Risiken sie in den Büchern haben.
Die Rechnung ist den betroffenen Investoren kürzlich präsentiert worden, als ein Hedge-Fund aus dem Hause Bear Stearns Probleme mit dem CDO-Portefeuille hatte und so eine kleine Panik im Markt auslöste.
Rating-Agenturen helfen kaum weiter Derzeit stehen für schätzungsweise 2 Bio. Problematisch an den CDO ist, dass sie aufgrund der hohen Komplexität nur schwer bewertbar sind.
Typischerweise werden sie mit Hilfe von mathematischen Modellen bewertet, wobei der Kurs in der Regel stark von Annahmen im Modell abhängt.
Die Anleger bewerten die Produkte in ihren Büchern zudem je nach Preismodell verschieden und können im Notfall mit der Änderung von Annahmen etwas nachhelfen.
Solange der Markt stabil bleibt, ist daran an sich nichts auszusetzen, zumal die Bewertungsmodelle typischerweise auf der Gaussschen Normalverteilung beruhen.
Das kann während heftiger Reaktionen wie etwa nach dem September oder während der Finanzkrise im Herbst allerdings ganz anders ausgehen und zu markanten Kurskorrekturen führen.
Ein weiteres Problem des CDO-Marktes ist, dass in ihm in der Regel nicht viel gehandelt wird, die Produkte also keinen echten Marktwert haben.
Die Anleger Hedge-Funds und andere institutionelle Investoren verschulden sich langfristig und kaufen mit dem Geld CDO.
Sie halten diese jeweils für lange Zeit, so dass sehr wenig gehandelt werden muss. Selbst in den vergangenen Wochen, als viele Anleger nervös geworden sind, hat die Branche vorwiegend mit Indizes gehandelt und Einzeltransaktionen mit den CDO wenn möglich vermieden.
Hauptgrund dafür ist, dass die Marktkurse wohl weit unter den theoretischen Bewertungen der Modelle liegen. Die Anleger ziehen es demnach vor, die CDO in den Büchern zu behalten.
Auch von den Kreditrating- Agenturen wie beispielsweise Moody's ist bisher nicht viel Neues zum Thema CDO-Bewertung gekommen.
Oft haben CDO mit gleichen Ratings verschiedene Kurse, was laut Beobachtern darauf zurückzuführen ist, dass die Marktteilnehmer skeptisch gegenüber den Kreditratings sind.
Risikomanagement braucht Marktkurse Die Turbulenzen im US-Hypothekarmarkt, die jüngst zur Krise bei Bear Stearns geführt haben, sind nicht neu.
Die Probleme im Subprime-Markt für Kredite mit geringer Bonität sind bekannt, und Experten gehen davon aus, dass es noch mehr Korrekturen geben wird.
Besorgt sind die Auguren vielmehr über die weitverbreitete Konfusion in Bezug auf die Bewertung von strukturierten Produkten, was angesichts der wachsenden Verbreitung dieser Vehikel verständlich ist.
Risiko ist für die Praktiker an der Wall Street freilich nichts Ungewöhnliches. Doch Risiko ohne Kontrolle ist inakzeptabel und könnte ernsthafte Folgen haben.
Dass die Anleger nicht verkaufen wollen, ist verständlich, wenn dafür 5 cents pro Dollar offeriert werden. So no, the 'pros' are not yet calling the big one.
But then they never do, until it happens. Such is the curse of consensus, and slavery to linear economic models. Crashes are famously non-linear.
We have clues. We learn that investors in the Bear Stearns Enhanced Leveraged Fund are getting offers of just 5 cent on the dollar for their stakes.
A wipe-out, in other words. The Bear Stearns rot goes much deeper of course. When Merrill Lynch forced a fire-sale of assets, it revealed that even A-grade tranches of these CDO mortgage debt securities were worth just 85pc of face value, and the B-grades nearer zilch.
Never take my rotten advice on the markets, but it might be good time to cash in a few stock gains, and rotate a little wealth into banal interest-bearing accounts.
The cycle is already one year beyond its normal life. The balance of risk and reward it turning ever less friendly.
Oder doch eher Gold und Silber? Hier noch die Sicht des Mogambo Guru. Er vergleicht das Desaster gar mit demjenigen seiner Hochzeitsnacht, als der wahre Wert der Aktiva zu Tage trat.
And as she watched in horror as our marriage and her whole future crumbled into a putrid puddle of poodle poop at the sudden revelation of my "true worth", likewise the prices of bonds crumbled, and "Even A-rated securities fetched just 85pc of face value.
B-grades fell off a cliff. GOLD STOCKS VS. OIL STOCKS by Greg Silberman blog. A question I get asked a lot is where should I be investing my money?
In this article I want to explore the Gold Stock vs. Oil Stock relationship to see how we should position ourselves for the remainder of the year and what if any inferences we can make on the general market.
Under normal financial conditions i. That is, Central banks pursue inflationary monetary policy in response to weak economic conditions which is positive for Gold.
Therefore, an analysis of Gold Stocks vs. Oil Stocks should give us an indication as to whether economic growth is strong or weak.
Oil Stocks still consolidating From late to Gold Stocks dominated Oil Stocks. As monetary stimulus took hold in the BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, China theme began to emerge, Oil Stocks and the Stock market in general began a 2-year rally into late the chart fell.
From a purely technical point of view, chart 1 indicates that Oil Stocks should continue to outperform Gold Stocks for the remainder of the year until the ratio reaches support at 0.
We also noted in the above article that periods of out performance by Crude vs. Oil Stocks are generally associated with a weakening stock market.
Following on that analysis, we note that the Amex Oil Stock Index has just formed a double top pattern against Crude.
It means that Oil Stocks and by inference the stock market in general will remain soggy through the summer Gold and Gold Stocks should bounce back from oversold positions.
However, based on the fact that Oil Stocks will outperform Gold stocks over the next months chart 1 , it is unlikely we will see a significant correction in stocks this year.
Make no mistake, Gold stocks are in a long-term secular bull market and MUST have a weighting in your portfolio. However, and as impossible as it may seem, the growth theme looks like it has further to go.
Crude Oil Whilst the correlation between Crude Oil and Oil Stocks can be a little iffy, the correlation between Gold Stocks and Gold Bullion is more dependable.
We have been watching the above Head and Shoulders formation for a while to see whether Gold would break out against Oil. And whilst Oil Stocks look extended, the above analysis indicates there is more upside in store chart 1.
Therefore higher Oil prices should be supportive of higher Oil Stock prices which should in turn should cause them to outperform gold stocks.
For now we favour energy stocks over Gold stocks and we are looking to put new money to work in the stocks of Oil and Natural Gas Producers and Drillers who are basically printing money with energy prices at these levels.
An historically unprecedented mess has been created by heretical central bankers and charlatan economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system.
Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy.
A tad of relevant geopolitics is covered as well. Articles in this series are promotional, an unabashed gesture to induce readers to subscribe.
HOLIDAY In keeping with the Independence Day holiday, a preface is offered. The irony is stiff as a board, as thick as a fog, as ugly as a pig.
Citizens in the Untied States have never seen such a broad, deep, palpable threat to their liberty, this time from within, in terms of the system and its leadership.
Dependence, the opposite of the celebrated theme, is running strong. The corporate agenda takes a one-day holiday. Refer to waging war, deceiving the masses, selling out the Middle Class, undermining the institutions, and rendering any threat to systemic reform as anti-business or unpatriotic.
Any opportunity for a day off is a good thing, to be honest. If you ask me, somehow this year the nation should skip the holiday.
It is one thing to commemorate the fallen soldiers on Memorial Day. However, as national financial catastrophe approaches, sure to shred liberty and compromise sovereignty, it makes sense to skip any festival for independence.
How about calling it the Second Labor Day, since some workers toil twice as hard or long for the same wage, and others earn half as much as they used to for the same work.
My preference would be to work toward independence from the US Federal Reserve and the US Military, whose monetary inflation and warmongering have enslaved million Americans by destroying the currency and decimating manufacturing base respectively.
Decimate technically means kill every tenth person, but here let's call it sparing every tenth company.
Like my top10 ideas for a economic, financial, political solution, not a single item of which stands a chance of enactment, the bipolar path is an exercise in futility and a waste of breath.
So let's celebrate a Dependence Day and hope for a bolt of lightning to save the day from our leaders, who regard the Constitution as a mere piece of paper, who work in a hideous manner to conceal their path toward a totalitarian state, the first stop being the North American Alliance, with a new amero currency sure to set off massive unprecedented controversy and retaliation on an international scale.
The bona fide trouble makers reside in WashingtonDC and a suburban Virginia enclave, causing a rumpus domestically and internationally. They have inflicted terror for a long time.
Maybe someday the US public investment community can be convinced of the commodity bull market virtues after a marketing promotion is launched, pitching them as the next Beany Babies.
Enough, gotta get serious. Enjoy the holiday, as serfs need rest. Some lower math in simple terms reveals the fraud and hidden tax.
Trust the Shadow Govt Statistics folks far more than any USGovt agency working an agenda. We love compound interest in returns, but overlook compound attrition arithmetic when whittling away our wealth or purchasing power.
The numbers are far too alarming and depressing on lost income through inflation since Let's not go there. DOUBLE EDGED SWORD The title of this article shows full respect for junk bonds.
The derogatory label of 'Garbage Bubble Bonds' befits the mortgage bonds, which pale in value by comparison to the respectable tainted paper sold as junk bonds in high yielding securities by companies with a speckled past.
Junk bonds do not deserve any insult, since they almost always offer true value behind the bond, just some laden risk and a higher rewarding bond yield for investment return.
Mortgage bonds do not, having been born of a bubble intentionally and recklessly created by Greenspan for the unexpressed purpose of covering up his stock bubble bust in Why is this man revered?
Kurt Richebächer stresses numerous times in our conversations, that for every homeowner suffering a loss is a bond holder suffering an equal loss.
Layer upon layer of other asset-backed bonds are in trouble, each with larger size, each with probably less loss, versus the previous layer of higher risk.
The point of the double edged sword is that for every loser on the home equity property owner side, one can point to a loser on the mortgage bond investor side.
The argument extends to distress, market troubles, and more. Just as the mortgages have begun to reset to higher adjusted rates an average of 1.
Value is not based upon assumptions in a flimsy model. The significantly higher monthly mortgage payments coincide with the massive mortgage bond valuation declines.
Bankers and lenders face a tough decision. Soon the cost of portfolio insurance will exceed the loss from their liquidation. Then mortgage bonds will be sold in droves.
Correspondingly, soon it might dawn on millions of homeowners that their home equity might go negative. Then marginal property owners will sell their homes in droves.
My forecast stands. This housing bear market will be the worst, without any semblance of doubt or dispute when it ends, since World War II and probably since the Great Depression.
It will be denied every step of the way, as losses mount for homeowners and bond investors alike. The denial is intended to prevent a housing stampede and bond meltdown.
For years the homestead, the house property has been considered the ultimate inflation hedge asset. Sure, price inflation wrecked havoc in the USEconomy, but the nation of citizens had a home which was rising in value to offset the undermine from inflation.
Now the leaders point to still substantial gains in home equity from the last six years when the housing bubble was erected.
A strong claim. Just watch as it happens. Call me crazy, send me nasty emails, but not a single forecast of mine has been outlandish in hindsight.
This devastation will unleash the extraordinary economic recession, the unending bond crisis, the USDollar global upheaval, and the political response.
In a matter of several months to a couple years, a growing sense of chaos will take over the landscape. After chaos intensifies, a totalitarian state is a certainty.
The cry will be for order, not growth or job preservation. The next painful phase will involve inflationary recession, not stagflation. The powers mismanaging matters of state and banks will hope for stagflation, and not see it except in this falsified statistics.
The USEconomy has already handed its manufacturing base to Asia. Banking officials and economic counselors have leaned upon the residential real estate as foundation for the entire consumption driven economy, against all sacrosanct wisdom in full heretical style.
The price to pay will be economic decline, lost wages, a lower standard of living, and rising chaos. People will lose their homes and lose their jobs.
People unfortunately will volunteer to forfeit their freedoms in order to maintain order. They will eventually beg for order when the suburbs are invaded.
Something like by year What lies around the corner is the end of the United States of America as we know it. The objective of each citizen is to preserve wealth, even to profit from the predictable decline, decay, degeneration, which will affect every aspect of life.
The homestead is officially under siege, as are banks. Japan went underwater for a decade, due to heavy real estate commitment and losses.
Expect something similar with the United States. My viewpoint is focused upon the SCHEDULE of the decline, with a TIMETABLE of rate resets, mortgage defaults, foreclosures, new inventory aggravation, mortgage bond downgrades, heavy writeoffs, and more, which have been WRITTEN in stone for the next two years.
Contagion is absolute. Even former FDIC head Bill Siedman acknowledges the pathogenesis. PRICE AFTER FAILED AUCTIONS If an auction fails, what is the value of items raised for sale which do not sell?
This is the key question asked after the failed auction by Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns. They tested the market, sought price clarity, and received the worst of all possible news.
NO VALUE. The exercise is surely to be repeated in subsequent months. How does a market respond?
The process within more easy reach require stocks to halt trading during disequilibrium imbalance, as sellers mass, buyers vanish, and price is unclear.
The real fun will be with the derivative leveraged paper, where the guys in propeller hats set up leverage, are stuck with cancerous assets behind the paper, and value is without any question whatsoever negative.
The power of leverage cuts both ways, with profit and loss. Get ready to watch a skein of court lawsuits by investors against Bear Stearns and a host of other Wall Street firms.
They misrepresented the asset behind the bond. Watch for a bold attempt by WS to have new legislation to exempt them from bond related law suits.
Hedge funds have begun to fall like birds in a drought. Recent news points to Horizon ABS and United Capital as blocking redemptions.
Lawsuits follow. Their investors are told they cannot get their money out!!! Wall Street firms already have covenants written into their bond issuances, limiting liability and investor rights to make claims against fraudulent misrepresentation.
This is yet another sign of the times with clear large letters spelling out the Mussolini Fascist Business Model, where government and industry collude to pilfer pillage and profit.
The USGovt is endorsing limited liability by inaction from regulatory bodies. The failed auctions might result in unclear value to be determined.
Watch the impact to balance sheets and collateral posted for loans. This will become interesting, much like watching a developing industrial fire, as chemical caches explode unexpectedly.
Formal statement of balance sheets might assign at some time in the future no value on certain collateralized bonds. They are priced by convenient goony models dependent upon collusion by rating agencies.
Failed auctions expose the shenanigans and might disable these very models. Vast writeoffs are certain on the mortgage bonds.
The size of writeoffs depends on the level of corruption permitted by the authorities. So far they have given gigantic extensive latitude to distort prices higher than true value.
With lower mortgage bond principal comes higher bond yield. With higher bond yield comes higher mortgage rates.
With higher mortgage rates come lower home purchase demand. With lower demand comes lower home prices. The dominoes are falling in ultra-slow motion.
With lower home values, less spending results. With lower home values come more decisions to sell properties. With more homes up for sale come an aggravation to inventory strain.
With colossal bond damage, related bond and asset sales will ensue. The meltdown is underway. Bear Stearns lit the fire. Wall Street in its infinite stupidity, recklessness, and cliquish behavior endorsed the torching of their colleague's bond basements.
THE USDOLLAR AND GOLD WILL REACT TO THE CONTAGION AND CRISIS. THE CHINESE ARE RESTLESS, HAVING SOLD A SCAD OF USTBONDS IN MAY, AND PROBABLY JUNE ALSO.
THEY PROBED FOR WEAKNESS AND SAW IT IN SPADES. COERCION NEXT So without a doubt the USDollar is the weakest link, and the USTreasury Bonds are the traded security behind the bloated black hole that best symbolizes the current Administration and its economic stewardship.
Don't expect a Democrat Admin to be any better. They will be dumbstruck by the bonfires in the bond world and the wreckage in the housing world.
Republicans always seem to enable corporate profiteering with impunity. See a dozen examples in the last six years.
Democrats always seem to attempt to help the little guy, but harm the system in critical ways. See higher tax rates resulting in lower tax revenue.
The nation is stymied, crippled, and heading to the cleaners. My label has been 'The Receivership Economy' from dependence upon bubbles, debt default, and Old Europe pulling the strings.
Without a doubt the USDollar is the weakest link, as numerous holes must be plugged to in the leaking dike. Gold and silver must be prevented from a zoom rise in price, since they serve as warning signals.
Crude oil and natural gas must be prevented from a zoom rise in price, since they directly strain the USDollar. The long-term interest rates must be prevented from jumping higher.
The stock market indexes must be prevented from falling sharply, since the public sees stocks as a visible signal of wealth. The USDollar must be prevented from a sudden freefall.
The entire Wall Street and US Federal Reserve leadership is in the process of soiling their skivvies. The best investment might be in Depends Adult Diapers.
These guys, leverage mechanics in financial engineering, destroyers of economies, snake oil salesmen of cancer ridden asset bonds, they are sweating bullets, pooping their pants, staring into space, stunned by failed auctions and uncertain valuation, wondering about leverage implications and debts called by creditors.
These are no longer exaggerations written in tabloids, but rather front page news items. Feeble denials by USFed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secy Paulson have rendered each a marginalized institution.
Is that possible? No, but their commentary is of marginal importance and substance anymore. They are the official denial mouthpieces.
A better viewpoint toward reality can be found by the Bank for Intl Settlements out of Switzerland the central bank among central banks and by the private citizen Alan Greenspan.
He can now speak freely about the wreckage he permitted under his watch, and the sequential bonfires lined up and now torched. Countless scandalous worthless doomed mortgage bonds were dressed before vanity bureaus, prepped for sale, lipstick on pigs.
The BONFIRE OF THE VANITIES will provoke a sharp economic, banking, and political response. Restrictions on hedge fund redemptions might soon be matched by restrictions on mortgage bond sales, especially their highly leveraged Collateralized Debt Obligation derivatives employing fold crazy leverage.
Imagine heavy leverage against a corroded base! The weakest link in the above list of assets to protect is the USDollar.
The untold story is that the strain on credit derivatives has put tremendous pressure on the USDollar, which cannot hold.
We have a crisis building. The USDollar in my view cannot be defended in the face of a credit derivative crisis. Look for coercion next, in the form of threats to those wishing to liquidate vast tranches of bonds.
It is a certainty. It has past precedent. In my view, the credit derivative events began with Fat Freddie Mac and Fatter Fannie Mae.
They are holders of the absolute worst quality of all mortgages and related bonds. In fact, typically the worst quality loan portfolios are packaged into bonds, as the best are kept for servicing and higher reliability in returns without delinquencies and defaults.
Their stocks will be delisted only after the insiders and aristocrats evacuate the FNM and FRD from their portfolios.
Bear Stearns is the visible GROUND ZERO of the mortgage bond bonfire. Wall Street maintains mostly buy recommendations! Translated: the fires are spreading, the contagion is realized, the system is weakening.
CRUDE OIL AS CANARY In the face of a weak link USDollar, a fast eroding Petro-Dollar defacto standard enforced by Persian Gulf principal players, one should expect the crude oil price to hurtle higher.
It is doing precisely that. Blame had been put on the Nigerian situation, but that is but a false facade and distorted assessment intentionally given.
The links have always been firm between the USDollar and crude oil. The alchemists cannot control them, while at the same time keep their controls in place on the vast price capping required throughout the Western bond world on long-term interest rates.
The wizards of financial chemistry have an even greater more powerful adversary in Mother Nature. The depletion of the large elephant oil fields inflicts harm on the supply side of the crude oil equation, thus putting extra pressure on the USDollar to the downside.
It could very well be that the crude oil will signal the breakdown in the USDollar. The crude oil market has become a veritable clusterhump of mismanagement and grotesque disturbance to the efficient mechanisms so urgently needed to provide adequate supply.
All kinds of inter-connected financial and derivative models link crude oil price to the USDollar exchange rate. Depletion interferes with the smooth operation of the price capping intricate workings.
Now we hear of repeated questions on whether the crude oil price has peaked. The exodus into commodity stocks will resume in the second half.
They claim a USEconomic recovery will come. IT WILL NOT. Leading Economic Indicators look really bad.
Capital goods orders have turned down, rendering the strong April figure as an outlier blip. GOLD AWAITS In time, the push upward in crude oil price will be matched by a push upward in the gold price.
The two are strongly correlated. A systemic bonfire has been lit, the effects of which will undermine the confidence in the US banking system, the US bond arena, and the USDollar itself.
To date, the authorities have succeeded in tossing a wet blanket over the gold market. See the monumental official gold bullion sales out of Europe.
In time, analyses will surface that the entire US banking system is at risk, possibly to repeat the Japanese decade outcome.
The USDollar DX index has a horrible looking chart. The US Federal Reserve auctions are not being welcome or well bid.
A deadly bear triangle is evident in the USDollar DX index multi-year chart. Meanwhile, gold holds its support levels with strength. Gold seems to lurk near the bonfires, awaiting the exodus, as gold will offer more security.
The bond bubble is in the process of a grotesque grand grave bust. Alternatives to the corrosive USTreasury Bonds are actively being sought, pursued, and secured.
Commodity investments are the new rage among central bank investment funds. These are analyzed more fully in the July Hat Trick Letter.
A breakdown is not far on the horizon. As the year TNote yield relaxed a bit toward 5. Next is a new down cycle. The English raised by 25 basis points to 5.
The euro flirts with , even as the British sterling currency seems to prefer at least a exchange rate as a base. The USDollar is poised for round after round of assaults.
The bonfire will affect the crippled buck, which stands as perhaps the weakest link, along with the crude oil price. By the later months of , the world will be focused directly on the bonfires in the US bond arena, questioning the entire US financial sector, its inflation directives, its housing bubble bust, its absent manufacturing base of stability.
Take comfort in its resilience. And by the way, watch gold but ride the silver vehicle, which will outperform gold by a ration, as usual.
Central banks dump gold, but nobody dumps silver. The powers scramble to meet delivery in silver, in fact. Also the very large commercials are in deep trouble on their short silver positions, unable to cover at these lower silver prices.
Looming over the wreckage, sure to worsen, is the hamstrung USFed and the compromised US Dept of Treasury. Conditions must worsen much more before the USFed takes drastic action.
A fly on the wall at panicky meetings behind the scenes has the best spot of all. Envy the fly.
THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS. From subscribers and readers: "I am staggered by the depth and breadth of the information I now have access to in your newsletter.
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You are one of the few remaining intellectuals with such capacity intact. As a result, he is now recommending that investors allocate any new monies to stocks rather than to gold.
This will come as something of a shock to gold's defenders, since Russell for several years now has been favoring gold over equities.
But, on the basis of his technical analysis of gold and stocks' relative strength, Russell has changed his mind. Russell bases his technical analysis on a ratio of the DJIA to gold.
This ratio hit its all time high in mid , for example, at around Whenever this ratio comes down, as it did between and , it means that gold is outperforming stocks.
But when it rises, as it has since May , it means that stocks are winning the relative strength battle. It's not just that the ratio has been rising over the last year that has led Russell to change his mind about stocks' prospects relative to gold.
It's that the ratio recently broke above its long-term declining trendline. It could mean if the trend continues that the Dow is going to surge to the upside while gold does almost nothing.
It could mean that the Dow goes up faster than gold goes up, but they both rise. It could mean that both go down, but that gold goes down faster than the Dow.
But basically, it simply means that on a relative strength basis, the Dow may now be in a period where it outperforms gold.
For the individual investor, there's nothing like the "fondle factor" of bullion. All of that puts people off from buying gold in its physical form, "except for the large investors who could afford such," he said.
The very tangible nature and high "fondle-factor" that is associated with gold has traditionally made it an investment that people tend to actually hold in coin or bar form.
There are "paper" representations of gold available, including futures contracts, certificates, pool accounts and exchange-traded funds, said James Turk, founder of GoldMoney.
They provide investors with exposure to the gold and silver price but have "counterparty risk," he said. On the other hand, the "physical metal does not have any counterparty risk when you own and store it safely," he said.
Trading vs. And right now, "times are changing in the physical gold bullion investment market," said Nadler. Investors "who wish to acquire gold have a much larger universe of products to choose from.
One "emerging trend" that Nadler observed is that U. Most small and medium investors opt for these types of coins, he said.
Meanwhile, gold bars are a "popular way to buy precious metals in bulk," he said. A league of their own Then there's the whole market of rare coins.
Collectors want to be the only one that has that coin, the only one that has that set [and] they want to look at a wide variety of coins," he said.
But if you look at the art market, which is a good way to gauge the rare coin market, "it has exploded recently," according to Beahm. Bill Rummel, a coin collector and investor for decades, predicts that "all collectables are ready for ignition -- again.
Fine line Of course, don't forget the plethora of other investing options for the precious metal. There's the gold futures market, mining shares, ETFs that invest in gold itself and others that invest in mining companies, and custodial gold products.
Some of these choices straddle the fine line between physical and paper ownership of the metal. First, it's important to remember that gold is money and should therefore go in an investment portfolio's cash component, said Turk.
And cash is "liquidity and savings. Then, the question to ask yourself before you decide in which form you should buy gold is "are you a speculator, investor or saver?
And "mining companies are more risky than physical bullion as there is extra risk in owning a company that mines or explores for gold than owning gold itself," he said.
Meanwhile, gold custodial products can be a cost-effective way to buy and hold physical metal. GoldMoney's goldgrams represent ownership of a portion of the gold held for the company's customers in a secure vault.
Physical drawbacks Of course, physical gold ownership isn't without its own challenges. Turk points out that that smaller bars or coins can sell for high premiums over the spot price because of fabrication and handling costs.
There are also "storage headaches," he said. Homeowner policies make no provisions for bullion coverage.
Storage costs at specialized vaults or banks can run form 0. When asked if the contents of the boxes are insured, she didn't offer any specifics, but said, "we don't insure what we don't know.
According to the FDIC, unless a bank is found to be negligent in the way it handled or protected your safe deposit box, don't expect the bank or its private insurance to reimburse you for any damage or loss.
Saefong is MarketWatch's assistant markets editor, based in San Francisco. Although the American PM markets are certainly very important, there is a massive world out there beyond our country.
We Americans have been incredibly blessed with unparalleled per-capita wealth, and it is great to see other nations around the world thriving economically too.
In any country more free enterprise ultimately leads to better standards of living and more surplus capital to invest. Some of this capital will certainly find its way into gold, the ultimate long-term investment throughout human history.
And even though per-capita levels of investment outside the US generally remain small by American standards, since those living outside the US outnumber Americans by over 22 to 1 they will collectively have a huge impact in the world markets.
So it is important for us to try to understand how gold is perceived outside of the United States.
As every speculator knows, it is price action that shapes perspective. When prices are high and rising, people get excited and want to deploy more capital.
When prices are low and falling, people get bored or scared and walk away in disgust. So by viewing gold through the lenses of major local currencies worldwide, we can get a good idea of how locals are likely to perceive it and whether they are likely to buy or sell.
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